HCM CITY — The stock market is poised for further gains, with the VN-Index projected to reach 1,920 points in 2026 amid improving growth prospects, according to SSI Research.

In its newly released December strategy report, the company said the economy maintained solid momentum in November, supported by manufacturing, investment and services, while inflation remained under control, creating a favourable environment for policy management.

Recent moves to regulate liquidity by the State Bank of Việt Nam, including raising the interest rate on open market operations and conducting foreign-exchange swap transactions, signal a proactive effort to stabilise liquidity rather than a shift in policy direction, it added.

November data indicates that GDP growth in the fourth-quarter could reach 8.2 per cent year-on-year, slightly below the Government’s 8.4 per cent target. Even so, full-year growth of around 8 per cent in 2025 remains well within reach.

Despite disruptions in the agricultural sector due to weather conditions and the high rate of small businesses withdrawing from the market, the overall growth outlook remains positive, it said.

Việt Nam is entering the year-end period with robust manufacturing activity, steady consumption, strong public investment disbursement, and a supportive fiscal foundation.

These conditions set the stage for 2026, strengthened by ongoing reform programmes aimed at improving administrative efficiency, easing legal bottlenecks in several sectors and accelerating public investment.

The report emphasised that while these reforms should bolster business sentiment and reinforce medium- to long-term growth, their impact would depend heavily on implementation and coordination among government agencies and localities.

Fiscal policy is likely to remain expansionary, providing a key pillar for long-term infrastructure and urban development cycles.

Looking ahead, Việt Nam aims to achieve double-digit GDP growth by 2030 driven by structural reforms, foreign direct investment and the rapid development of infrastructure.

Market valuations also remain attractive. SSI Research forecasts that the VN-Index could reach 1,920 points, supported by an estimated profit growth of 14.5 per cent in 2026, which would outperform many regional markets.

The forward price-to-earnings ratio for 2026 currently stands at 12.7 times, below the historical average.

Foreign investors’ selling is showing signs of easing.

Meanwhile, a series of capital market reforms like simplified account-opening procedures, the removal of the prefunding requirement, shorter timelines from initial public offering to listing, and the rollout of the new KRX trading system is expected to deepen market liquidity.

A notable development is the expansion of access for global brokerage firms through the Straight-Through Processing system.

This initiative automates clearing and settlement processes, reduces manual intervention, shortens the settlement cycle, and significantly streamlines operations in line with international standards.

SSI Research identified five strategic sector groups with promising opportunities: banking, with forecast earnings growth of 16 per cent; consumer goods, which are expected to benefit from tax policies and network expansion; infrastructure and construction materials, which will gain from public investment; policy-favoured sectors such as fertilisers and petroleum; and technology, which is expected to recover in 2026. — VNS