HCM CITY — Singapore’s United Overseas Bank (UOB) has revised up its 2025 GDP growth forecast for Việt Nam to 7.5 per cent from 6.9 per cent, pointing to the economy’s resilience and dynamism despite tariff risks and uncertainties.

According to UOB’s Global Economics & Markets Research unit, Việt Nam’s GDP expanded 7.52 per cent in the first half from a year earlier, marking the quickest January-June pace since 2011.

The robust first-half results were propelled primarily by a 14 per cent year-on-year surge in exports, bolstered by improved market sentiment following US President Donald Trump’s temporary reduction of reciprocal tariffs to a baseline 10 per cent rate for trading partners over 90 days.

Tariff uncertainties abated in the second half of 2025 after the US locked in country-specific rates ahead of the August 1 deadline, with Việt Nam’s levy settling at 20 per cent.

While tariff pressures remain, UOB expects Việt Nam’s exports to grow about 10 per cent in 2025, compared with 14 per cent in 2024, assuming a moderate 1 per cent–5 per cent year-on-year expansion over the remainder of the year.

Other indicators further highlighted the economy’s resilience. Việt Nam's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rebounded to 52.4 in July after three consecutive months below the 50-point contraction threshold. Industrial output rose 9 per cent year-on-year.

Realised FDI reached US$13.6 billion as of July, up from $12.6 billion a year earlier, suggesting full-year inflows could surpass $20 billion compared with $25.4 billion in 2024.

Amid external headwinds, Việt Nam in mid-August unveiled a $48 billion infrastructure investment plan covering 250 projects. The Government will finance 129 projects worth $18 billion, focusing on urban development and transport. The remaining 121 projects, valued at $30.5 billion, will draw on other sources, including foreign companies.

For 2026, UOB maintained its growth forecast at 7 per cent. The Government is targeting GDP growth of 8.3 per cent–8.5 per cent this year.

Given Việt Nam’s upbeat second-half outlook and exchange rate pressures on the Vietnamese đồng, UOB analysts believed these factors would limit the central bank’s room to ease monetary policy, forecasting its refinancing rate unchanged at 4.5 per cent.

Should business conditions and the labour market weaken markedly, the central bank might slash the refinancing rate to its pandemic-era low of 4 per cent, though that’s outside UOB’s base-case scenario.

On the exchange rate, UOB expected the Vietnamese đồng will not fully benefit from a renewed weakening of the US dollar - anticipated once the Federal Reserve begins its rate-cutting cycle.

Overall, however, currency pressures are set to ease. UOB predicted the VND/USD rate at 26,300 in Q4 2025, 26,200 in Q1 2026 and 26,000 by Q3 2026. — VNS