HÀ NỘI — Deposit interest rates are likely to continue rising as banks respond to widening gaps between credit growth and deposit mobilisation, analysts said, citing both domestic liquidity pressures and global macroeconomic factors.

Recent increases in deposit rates, initially led by joint-stock lenders, have spread to State-owned banks, signalling the formation of a new rate baseline in the money market.

Analysts said the primary driver is an imbalance between credit expansion and funding capacity. A report by RongViet Securities Corporation showed that in the first two months of 2026, credit across the banking system grew 1.4 per cent, while deposits rose only 0.8 per cent, creating liquidity strains.

Banks have responded by raising deposit rates to attract funds and maintain balance sheet stability and meeting loan-to-deposit ratio requirements.

MB Securities JSC said demand for capital is entering a new growth phase, driven largely by long-term financing needs for public investment and major infrastructure projects expected to underpin economic expansion this year.

Externally, persistently high global interest rates have limited the decline in funding costs, adding pressure on domestic monetary policy, particularly in managing exchange rates and inflation.

Vietcombank Securities Co said funding pressures are likely to persist as credit growth remains strong and public investment disbursement accelerates.

It added that escalating geopolitical tensions could further constrain policy flexibility for the State Bank of Vietnam, potentially prompting a broader and faster increase in deposit rates across the banking sector to support the domestic currency.

Widespread adjustment wave

Market developments last week appeared to confirm these expectations, with banks rolling out a broad and near-simultaneous wave of deposit rate increases.

Sacombank raised rates sharply across tenors of six months and longer. Online deposit rates for six- to 11-month terms rose to 6.8-7.2 per cent per year from 6.1-6.3 per cent, while rates for 24- to 36-month maturities climbed to as high as 7.6 per cent, reflecting strong demand for long-term funding. Over-the-counter rates also increased by 0.2-0.4 percentage points, with long-term deposits reaching 7.2 per cent.

VPBank raised rates three times within half a month, pushing its 12-month rate to 7.1 per cent per year.

Meanwhile, Techcombank launched promotional programmes that lifted effective deposit rates above 8 per cent, while MB increased its 12-month rate by 1.1 percentage points to remain among the market’s highest-yielding lenders.

Competition has also intensified in the digital segment. TNEX - a digital banking platform, backed by MSB, offered rates of up to 8.5 per cent per year for deposits below VNĐ300 million, targeting younger customers seeking higher returns without large minimum balances or long lock-in periods.

State-owned lenders, after a prolonged period of maintaining low rates to support businesses, have also moved higher. After VietinBank, BIDV and Vietcombank, BIDV was the latest to act on March 25, increasing its 24-month rate by 0.7 percentage points to 6.7 per cent. BIDV currently offers online rates of up to 6.8 per cent per year among this group.

Analysts warned the upward trend in funding costs could pose challenges for the broader economy, underscoring the need for regulators to monitor market stability and avoid excessive rate competition that could push up lending costs and weigh on business recovery.

Looking ahead, ACB Securities Company Limited (ACBS) said deposit rates are likely to continue rising in the first half of 2026 until exchange rate conditions improve and geopolitical tensions ease, helping to stabilise capital flows.

Experts added that although deposit rates have risen by around 1-1.5 percentage points since 2025, the market has yet to reach equilibrium.

Smaller private banks, which rely more heavily on customer deposits and have less diversified funding structures than larger peers, are expected to face the greatest pressure. — VNS