Compiled by Mai Hương

HÀ NỘI — The gold market experienced one of its most volatile weeks this year, with prices plunging to multi-month lows before rebounding sharply in the final trading sessions.

The dramatic swings left many investors nursing losses, while raising fresh questions about the outlook for gold after months of record-breaking gains.

As of June 14, SJC gold bars were quoted at around VNĐ144 million (US$5,455) per tael for buying and VNĐ147 million ($5,568) for selling.

The figures were down more than VNĐ3 million from a week earlier despite a strong recovery during the final trading sessions. Gold rings and jewellery followed a similar pattern, trading near VNĐ143.9 million–146.9 million per tael.

The latest fluctuations extend a broader correction that has been underway for more than a month.

Domestic gold prices have fallen roughly VNĐ17 million per tael from recent levels and remain far below the record highs of VNĐ190-191 million reached in the first quarter of this year.

For investors who bought near those peaks, the losses remain substantial. Selling at current prices would result in losses exceeding VNĐ40 million per tael.

The speed of the decline surprised many market participants.

During the week, SJC gold briefly dropped to around VNĐ136 million per tael, its lowest level since September last year. The fall triggered widespread concern among retail investors, many of whom rushed to sell amid fears that prices could slide further.

Domestic analysts said the sharp rebound reflected both bargain hunting and the unique dynamics of Việt Nam's gold market.

According to economist Đinh Trọng Thịnh, prices around VNĐ136 million per tael were seen as attractive after gold had traded near VNĐ150-160 million for an extended period.

"Savvy investors moved in to buy at lower prices, betting that gold would eventually resume its long-term upward trend," he said.

Gold expert Chu Phương said panic selling had accelerated the earlier decline. Many investors rushed to cut losses as prices fell, while wider buying-selling spreads adopted by gold traders to manage risk added further pressure to the market. 

Domestic factors, however, were only part of the story.

Internationally, gold prices came under pressure after stronger-than-expected US economic data reduced expectations of near-term interest rate cuts. Higher interest rates generally weigh on gold because the metal does not generate income and becomes less attractive compared with interest-bearing assets.

A stronger US dollar added further pressure.

However, the sell-off eventually eased as investors returned to the market and concerns over geopolitical developments in the Middle East remained in focus.

Gold subsequently recovered from lows near $4,000 per ounce and moved back above the $4,200 threshold, equivalent to approximately VNĐ134.3 million per tael.

Domestic SJC gold therefore trades about VNĐ12 million higher than the world price.

That premium remains an important factor for investors.

When global prices rise, the local market often records larger gains. However, when international prices fall, domestic prices may adjust more slowly before eventually catching up. This can increase volatility and create larger short-term losses for investors who enter the market near peaks.

Despite the rebound, analysts remain cautious.

A survey by Kitco found that most professional analysts expect prices to move sideways in the coming week rather than establish a clear direction.

Among 17 Wall Street analysts surveyed, nearly two-thirds anticipated a period of consolidation. Retail investors were more divided, although bearish expectations slightly outnumbered bullish views.

Adrian Day, president of Adrian Day Asset Management, believes gold may have found a short-term bottom despite recent volatility.

He said easing tensions in the Middle East could reduce demand for the US dollar as a safe-haven asset, while lower oil prices may also ease pressure on interest rates. Both factors could provide support for gold in the coming months.

For Vietnamese investors, the key question is whether the recent correction marks the end of the bull market or merely a pause.

Many local experts lean toward the second scenario.

They note that although short-term pressure from US monetary policy remains significant, several longer-term factors continue to support gold. Central banks around the world are still accumulating the precious metal, while geopolitical risks and concerns about global economic growth have not disappeared.

China's central bank, for example, continued adding to its gold reserves in May, extending a long-running buying streak. Such purchases are widely viewed as a structural source of support for the market.

Nevertheless, the events of the past week highlight an important reality: gold is no longer a one-way bet.

The spectacular rally that pushed domestic prices close to VNĐ200 million per tael earlier this year encouraged many retail investors to view gold as a safe path to quick profits. Recent trading has demonstrated that the market can also move sharply in the opposite direction.

The coming weeks may provide clearer answers.

Until then, caution rather than optimism appears to be the dominant mood in the country's gold market. — BIZHUB/VNS