The 2026 Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences has drawn attention to the importance of the microeconomic foundations of macroeconomic policy. Dr Nguyễn Tú Anh, director of the Macroeconomic Research Project at the Smart Green Transformation Centre (GREEN-X) under VinUniversity, spoke to Việt Nam News about the implications of that research for Việt Nam’s macroeconomic management, particularly as the country pursues ambitious growth targets.

He discusses the role of market expectations in shaping spending, investment and inflation, how to maintain macroeconomic stability while pursuing rapid growth, and the need for consistent and predictable policies to build market confidence.  

What key messages does the 2026 Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences offer for macroeconomic management, and what lessons can Việt Nam draw from it?

The 2026 Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences was awarded to researchers whose work focuses on the microeconomic foundations of macroeconomic policies. One of the central points of their research is that managing expectations is crucial to macroeconomic management.

Expectations determine spending, investment and saving decisions. All these factors, in turn, influence inflation.

The message from these researchers is that the State must take the lead in guiding expectations, a concept known as forward guidance. It must set out a clear direction and maintain its credibility, demonstrating that it can deliver on what it has announced. This gives the market confidence that the State will follow through on its commitments. When that happens, market behaviour can respond accordingly, allowing the State to manage expectations in this way.

For Việt Nam, as we introduce development policies and pursue high, double-digit growth, we also need to send a clear message about macroeconomic stability. If rapid growth starts to move off course and indicators such as inflation or public debt rise, where are the limits? And what will the State do if those limits are exceeded?

Setting out these boundaries helps ensure transparency. The State must then consistently follow the course it has announced. This will build market confidence and shape market expectations.

Việt Nam aims for rapid growth, but how can we ensure it reflects genuine improvements in growth capacity rather than simply higher investment and resource use?

Rapid growth usually involves two factors. First, it requires strong demand. The rapid-growth models of countries we have studied show that investment is needed to change productivity quickly, while also enabling a large volume of output to be produced in a short period.

But that output needs a market. If the domestic market is too small to absorb it, rapid-growth models usually rely on investment and openness: invest heavily, produce on a large scale and sell into large markets. That is how rapid growth is achieved.

So what indicators can show whether growth quality is improving? One relatively easy-to-understand measure is the incremental capital-output ratio, or ICOR. It indicates how much investment is needed to generate one unit of additional growth. If investment costs are lower while growth is high, that suggests an improvement.

The second indicator is total factor productivity, or TFP. However, TFP is produced through modelling rather than directly measured through statistical data. Different models can produce very different results, so TFP is, in practice, a theoretical indicator.

What matters more to us, and what gives us a clearer view of improving growth quality, is whether rapid growth goes hand in hand with macroeconomic stability.

How should Việt Nam coordinate policies to sustain high growth while controlling inflation and limiting long-term risks?

This is a difficult question. Today, we have focused more on macroeconomic stability because the research by the Nobel laureates looks at stability and how to address problems and shocks when they occur.

The research highlights two groups in the economy: those with access to the financial system, whose decisions are shaped by expectations, and those who spend what they earn and have limited financial access.

A shock such as rising petrol prices can fuel inflation, affect people and slow growth. Monetary policy, including interest rate cuts, has limited impact on those without access to financial markets. They need fiscal support, such as tax cuts, direct assistance or subsidies for fuel prices, while monetary policy can be used for those with access to the financial system.

At the same time, it is extremely important to modernise Việt Nam’s financial and banking systems quickly, expanding coverage and access. The better these systems work, the more effectively the two policy approaches can complement each other.

The financial and banking system is the backbone of an economy pursuing rapid growth. It must develop ahead of growth and remain stable and protected. Growth should not come at the expense of this system. If it runs into trouble, the engines of growth could grind to a halt.

How can Việt Nam ensure that science and technology improve growth quality under Resolution 57, and what institutional or business environment changes are needed? 

One area in which Việt Nam is moving in the right direction and making substantive progress is the promotion of digital transformation across the State apparatus, the development of data centres and stronger connections across the economy.

These efforts can help create a data-driven economy. The State can make decisions based on data, businesses can make investment decisions based on data, and consumers can make spending decisions based on data.

When these data are linked, and universities and research institutes are connected to them, they can generate value through new ideas, inventions, innovations and technological change.

This is the path Việt Nam is taking, and it is a path that the Republic of Korea has followed successfully. Of course, building such a smart economy must go hand in hand with an effective institutional framework.

The institutional framework must be coherent and work smoothly, as conflicting laws can hinder digitalisation and automation and prevent AI systems from making decisions based on the law. The legal system must therefore be consistent, without contradictions, and comprehensive enough to avoid gaps. Việt Nam is working towards these goals, and I believe this is the right direction.

If you could recommend three policy priorities for Việt Nam over the next five years, which would you choose to sustain high economic growth?

My first priority is investment in digital transformation: digitising and connecting systems, strengthening connectivity, expanding data storage capacity, improving data processing capacity and applying AI.

Second, we need policies to support vulnerable groups, including small and medium-sized enterprises, through the digital transition. As digital technologies and automation advance, larger companies have major advantages in terms of people, technology and scale. Smaller businesses may therefore face difficulties. Support is needed to ensure that digital tools do not become barriers, but instead provide a foundation and a springboard for these businesses to grow.

Finally, Việt Nam needs macroeconomic management policies that keep the economy on a reasonably stable footing. We cannot expect rapid growth while inflation remains at only 3-4 per cent. We could accept inflation of 4-5 per cent if it remains stable and allows the economy to achieve high growth. That is entirely possible. — VNS