HCM CITY — The stock market surged in the third quarter of 2025, with the VN-Index rising by more than 20 per cent during the three months and delivering exceptional returns for many mutual funds.

According to data from Fmarket, Việt Nam’s largest platform for mutual funds, several posted outstanding performances, including BVFED (+25.52 per cent), MAGEF (+23.96 per cent), DCDS (+21.13 per cent), VinaCapital-VEOF (+19.11 per cent), TCGF (+18.86 per cent), UVEEF (+18.86 per cent), MAFEQI (+18.27 per cent), KDEF (+18.24 per cent), EVESG (+17.61 per cent), and DCDE (+17.1 per cent).

In the year to date, BVFED led with a gain of over 36.4 per cent.

The best performers tended to focus on large-cap (blue chip) stocks or adopted dynamic portfolio management strategies, enabling them to fully capture the VN-Index’s momentum.

Since early 2025, the market has been largely driven by large-cap stocks, while many fundamentally sound shares have yet to perform as expected. Facing this divergence, fund managers have had to maintain strict risk discipline while tweaking their portfolios to seize opportunities.

While 2024 saw strong interest in technology stocks, in 2025 capital flows shifted heavily towards banking, building materials, retail, and securities.

Importantly, funds chose to hold cash when there were adverse developments such as the US imposing tariffs, and restructured portfolios with stocks expected to benefit from domestic market growth.

Once trends became clearer, they quickly reinvested in leading stocks.

In August, when the market neared short-term peaks, many funds took profits in banking stocks and reduced equity exposure to preserve gains and prepare for the next cycle.

Favourable outlook for Q4 and long-term strategy

Entering the final quarter of the year, the market is buoyed by positive macro-economic signals, particularly the US’s interest rate cuts and FTSE Russell’s decision to upgrade Việt Nam from frontier to emerging market status.

Experts said the US’s easing cycle reduced exchange-rate pressure and, along with improving credit growth outlook, is creating favourable conditions for investors to accumulate assets at attractive valuations and pursue long-term strategies.

Dương Kim Anh, director of Investment at VCBF, said though the market remains affected by some short-term external factors, these do not indicate any fundamental structural change.

Việt Nam’s stock market still offers plenty of opportunities in companies with solid foundations and long-term growth potential.

This is the right time for investors to stay patient, hold their portfolios, and await improved business results and a recovery in stock prices, she advised.

She said sectors performing strongly since early 2025, particularly banking, still have room for growth, supported by stable credit expansion, improving asset quality amid a real estate recovery and digital transformation helping optimise costs.

Banks that balance growth with prudent risk management remain attractive investment choices.

In light of Việt Nam’s upgrade to emerging market status, HSBC expects this milestone to attract more long-term foreign capital from both index-tracking and active funds, with an optimistic scenario bringing in up to US$10.4 billion in foreign inflows.

Sharing her outlook, Nguyễn Hoài Thu, deputy CEO of VinaCapital, identified three key drivers enhancing the Vietnamese market’s medium- and long-term appeal.

The first is the upgrade to emerging market status, which could attract substantial foreign capital inflows. Second, the economy and corporate profits are maintaining strong growth momentum. Third, the Government’s reform programme is driving deep structural economic transformation while accelerating the approval of infrastructure and real estate projects, laying a solid foundation for sustainable long-term growth.

With such strong domestic and international tailwinds, analysts believe this is a favourable time for investors to align with the market’s transformation, particularly through professional and long-term investment channels such as open-ended funds.

In fact, data shows that many open-ended funds operating for at least five years have delivered returns far exceeding market benchmarks. Between September 2020 and September 2025, the VN-Index gained 82.9 per cent, while several funds delivered around double that rate. Standouts include VinaCapital-VESAF (175.41 per cent), SSISCA (163.31 per cent), DCDS (161.94 per cent), VinaCapital-VEOF (155.68 per cent), and VCBF-BCF (141.84 per cent). — VNS