HÀ NỘI — Analysts expect that the stock market will likely continue in an accumulation phase this week, anticipating a boost from third-quarter earnings results and, notably, the forthcoming FTSE upgrade review.

The prediction comes after the market closed a relatively subdued trading week on Friday, overshadowed by cautious investor sentiment.

After a promising start that nearly approached the previous peak around 1,700 points, the market faced swift profit-taking, leading the VN-Index to adjust downward for four consecutive sessions. 

Without consistent support from major stocks, the declines could have been even steeper, as market breadth leaned heavily toward selling, compounded by ongoing pressure from foreign investorss. 

The VN-Index closed last week at 1,658.62 points, down 0.52 per cent from the previous week, while the HNX-Index was last traded at 276.24 points, down 0.1 per cent. 

During the week, Vingroup (VIC) emerged as a focal point and a key driver supporting the VN-Index. 

The stock surged over 11 per cent, contributing 14.8 points to the weekly increase. Notably, on Friday, VIC soared nearly 5.7 per cent to reach VNĐ153,200 per share (US$5.81), marking a new peak. 

Since the beginning of 2025, Vingroup’s shares have risen almost 280 per cent, pushing its market capitalisation to a record high of over VNĐ590 trillion ($22 billion). 

This uptick has allowed Vingroup to reclaim its position as the market capitalisation leader, surpassing Vietcombank after several years.

Sector performance witnessed significant divergence. The week saw widespread adjustment pressures in sectors such as securities, real estate, steel, industrial zones, banking, construction and retail. 

However, some sectors performed more positively, including seafood, technology, ports and textiles.

Foreign investors sold a net total of over 180 million units during the week, with a total net selling value of over VNĐ6.5 trillion, down 20.1 per cent in volume but up 20.1 per cent in value compared to the previous week.

This week, securities firms generally agree that the VN-Index is in an accumulation phase following a prolonged increase since the beginning of the third quarter (Q3).

Saigon - Hanoi Securities JSC (SHS) experts suggest that the VN-Index may face pressure to test the psychological support level of 1,600 points, given the less favourable short-term accumulation trend beneath the resistance level around 1,665 points, which corresponds to the 20-day average price of the index. 

The market is currently fluctuating within a narrow range after a strong upward trend.

SHS analysts added that this current adjustment is necessary for the market to establish a new price base after surpassing the historic peak of 2022. 

Low liquidity indicates that funds are temporarily on the sidelines, awaiting clearer fundamental factors as Q3 concludes. 

For the VN-Index to improve its trend, new growth drivers are needed, particularly based on valuations and the outlook for Q3 earnings as well as the year-end period. 

SHS therefore recommends that investors maintain a balanced portfolio, focusing on leading stocks with solid fundamentals and strong growth potential.

Meanwhile, analysts from VNDirect Securities Corporation noted that following the US Federal Reserve’s policy decisions, attention will quickly shift to October 7, when FTSE will announce whether the Vietnamese stock market will be upgraded from frontier to 'secondary emerging market' status.

The start of the Q3 earnings season will also provide a clearer picture of the profit outlook for listed companies. These two factors are expected to serve as significant catalysts that could determine the VN-Index's direction in the fourth quarter. 

However, investors should remain cautious in the quarters following the upgrade, as the market may experience substantial volatility, VNDirect said. 

The securities firm forecasts that ahead of these pivotal events, the VN-Index may encounter short-term adjustment pressures, with profit-taking likely concentrated in large-cap stocks, particularly in the banking and securities sectors, key pillars that have driven the market in recent weeks. — BIZHUB/VNS