HÀ NỘI — A widening gap between housing prices and household incomes is raising concerns about the long-term balance of Việt Nam’s real estate market, even as property supply expands and the sector shows signs of recovery.

Nguyễn Văn Đính, Vice Chairman of the Vietnam National Real Estate Association (VNREA) and Chairman of the Vietnam Association of Realtors, made the remarks at the association’s annual members’ meeting held in Hà Nội on March 12.

Although housing supply has increased significantly and market activity has begun to recover, specialists believe 2026 will see clearer segmentation within the sector as property prices continue to rise faster than incomes while some suburban areas face potential liquidity challenges.

According to Đính, the real estate market in 2025 experienced a surge in supply as hundreds of projects were launched nationwide.

However, the recovery has also brought new challenges that may shape the market in the coming period, foremost among them the growing gap between property prices and income levels.

Demand for housing remains strong, supported by Việt Nam’s economic growth, rapid urbanisation and the expansion of the middle class. However, residents’ purchasing power has not risen at the same pace as property prices.

In recent years, housing prices in major urban centres such as Hà Nội and Hồ Chí Minh City have increased steadily, further widening the gap between income levels and property values.

Đính said the trend has become one of the key factors affecting real housing demand. Many people, particularly young buyers, are being forced to postpone home-buying plans because of growing financial pressure.

At the same time, a noticeable gap has emerged between sellers’ expectations and buyers’ sentiment. Sellers tend to maintain prices or make only slight adjustments while buyers have become more cautious, often choosing to monitor the market before making purchasing decisions.

As a result, most transactions are concentrated in projects that benefit from favourable locations, clear legal status and reputable developers. Projects with excessively high prices or weak development strategies often struggle to attract buyers.

In addition to affordability pressures, the real estate market in 2026 is also expected to face potential liquidity risks in certain areas.

VNREA forecasts housing supply could reach around 150,000 units in 2026 if projects are launched on schedule. Of this total, the northern region is expected to contribute about 60,000 units including roughly 40,000 from Hà Nội and Hưng Yên Province alone. In Hồ Chí Minh City, supply is estimated at about 55,000 units.

As housing prices in major cities continue to climb, investment capital is expected to increasingly shift towards suburban areas where growth potential remains and prices are more accessible.

However, Đính warned that not all suburban areas will be able to attract investment flows. Some localities could face liquidity bottlenecks if transport infrastructure remains incomplete or if developers lack the capacity to build essential amenities.

Where infrastructure networks are not yet synchronised and public services remain insufficient, genuine housing demand is unlikely to grow. This means even projects launched in large volumes may still see slow transaction activity.

The market in 2026 is therefore expected to undergo stronger screening. Projects with complete legal documentation, locations linked to major transport corridors and development models based on integrated urban planning are more likely to maintain stable liquidity.

According to VNREA, despite the likelihood of stronger market segmentation in 2026, the overall trend points towards more sustainable development as speculative activity gradually declines and investment capital increasingly focuses on projects offering real value. — VNS