HÀ NỘI — The banking sector’s profitability is showing a clear shift into a new growth phase in which rising interest rates are no longer the sole driver, with asset quality, operational efficiency and risk management capacity playing an increasingly decisive role.

Profits in 2025 rose in sync across banking groups, from State-owned lenders to private institutions, lifting earnings across the system to a high level. This reflects a genuine recovery in credit demand alongside improved operating efficiency.

Overall, 2025 can be seen as the foundation year for a new growth cycle in the banking sector, marked by higher profits, tighter control of bad debts, safer liquidity, and a gradually improving capital structure. The simultaneous improvement in profitability, capital adequacy and non-performing loan control is laying the groundwork for more sustainable and in-depth profit growth.

Entering 2026, expectations across the banking system point not only to faster growth but also to greater sustainability.

According to a strategic report by Vietcap Securities Joint Stock Company, after-tax profits for the entire banking sector are expected to accelerate from 14 per cent in 2025 to nearly 20 per cent this year. This outlook reflects a solid recovery in credit activity and non-interest income, together with relatively well-controlled operating costs.

Vietcap forecasts credit growth across the sector of about 17.8 per cent, supported by a favourable economic environment and loose monetary policy aimed at stimulating business activity and individual capital needs. At the same time, net interest margins are expected to remain stable and edge up slightly, alongside higher income from bad debt recovery as the real estate market rebounds.

Against the backdrop of improving asset quality, Vietcap believes pressure from bad debts will continue to ease, supported by strong debt resolution measures and significantly improved liquidity at credit institutions. This is expected to provide a firmer base for profit growth as credit costs stay below levels seen in earlier periods.

Meanwhile, analysts at Vietcombank Securities Joint Stock Company (VCBS) highlighted the role of dynamic private banks, which stand to benefit not only from the broader economic recovery but also from specific catalysts such as capital increases, IPOs, the attraction of strategic investors and faster recovery of bad debts.

In its assessment of several lenders, VCBS forecasts VietinBank could post pre-tax profits of nearly VNĐ52 trillion (US$1.98 billion) in 2026, up 19 per cent, with credit growth of about 18.2 per cent and net interest margins beginning to recover from the second half of the year. BIDV is projected to earn more than VNĐ40.9 trillion, a 21 per cent rise, driven by growth in operating income and other income from bad debt resolution, although its net interest margin is expected to remain low at around 2.2 per cent. Techcombank is also expected to continue benefiting from the recovery of the real estate, construction and home loan markets.

Despite the upbeat outlook, VCBS cautioned that the business environment still harbours many uncertainties. Banks are therefore urged to prioritise asset quality, diversify revenue sources and strengthen risk management capabilities rather than focusing solely on credit growth.

In this new context, profitability is not just a short-term performance indicator but also a measure of resilience and preparedness for a longer-term development cycle, VCBS noted. — BIZHUB/VNS