HCM CITY Experts and businesses believe that with stronger investment, value-chain-based production and expanded export markets, banana exports could realistically approach the US$1 billion target.

Bananas have been identified as a priority product under the Project for the Development of Key Fruit Crops to 2025, with a vision to 2030, approved in October 2022. Under the plan, banana acreage is projected to reach 165,000–175,000ha by 2030, with output of 2.6–3 million tonnes.

Production will be concentrated in major growing regions such as the Red River Delta, the northern midlands and mountains, the North Central region, the South Central coast, the Central Highlands, the Southeast and the Mekong Delta.

Speaking at a forum organised on Saturday in HCM City to discuss solutions for preventing and controlling Panama disease in bananas, Associate Professor Dr Lê Quốc Doanh, former Deputy Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development and Chairman of the Việt Nam Gardening Association, said Việt Nam currently produces around 2.8 million tonnes of bananas each year. Banana acreage and yields have increased steadily, reflecting growing market demand and the sector’s expanding production capacity.

In 2024, banana exports generated about US$372–378 million, ranking fourth among Việt Nam’s fruit exports, after durian, dragon fruit and coconut. However, Doanh noted that this figure remains modest compared to the sector’s production scale and overall potential.

According to Nguyễn Quốc Mạnh, Deputy Director of the Department of Crop Production and Plant Protection, total banana-growing area nationwide is expected to reach about 163,000–163,500ha by 2025, with output estimated at 2.75 million tonnes per year.

From a business perspective, Phạm Quốc Liêm, Chairman of U&I Agriculture Corporation, said the global banana market was valued at about $15.3 billion in 2024 and is forecast to reach $21 billion by 2030. Although Việt Nam ranks ninth worldwide in banana production, export value remains relatively low at around $380 million.

He said that Vietnamese bananas hold less than 40 per cent market share in China, about 3 per cent in Japan and under 17 per cent in South Korea, despite favourable trade agreements and geographic proximity. These figures indicate significant room for growth.

Despite its strong prospects, the sector continues to face significant challenges. Mạnh said market information remains limited for producers, while prices fluctuate sharply, particularly for shipments that do not meet official export requirements. In addition, increasingly strict technical barriers in importing markets, especially related to plant quarantine and chemical residue limits, are placing greater pressure on both farmers and exporters.

Doanh identified plant disease as the most serious threat to the sector, with Panama disease posing the greatest risk. Caused by Fusarium fungus, the disease persists in the soil, spreads rapidly and can cause severe production losses. He stressed that focusing solely on disease control is insufficient, calling instead for a comprehensive strategy covering plant varieties, cultivation techniques, production organisation and market development.

Providing further scientific insight, Dr Trần Ngọc Hùng from the Fruit and Vegetable Research Institute said Panama disease in Việt Nam is caused by Fusarium oxysporum f. sp. cubense. The fungus survives for long periods in the soil, enters through plant roots and blocks the vascular system, leading to leaf yellowing, wilting and plant death. Its strong resistance to conventional fungicides makes chemical control largely ineffective.

Globally, Panama disease has severely affected banana production since the mid-20th century and remains a major threat, causing an estimated $1 billion in losses each year. In Việt Nam, the disease became widespread from 2016–2017, devastating many Cavendish banana-growing areas and forcing farmers to switch to other crops.

To curb its spread, Việt Nam has joined international cooperation programmes, including the Asia-Pacific Banana Network, while stepping up research and training.

"The most fundamental and sustainable solution is the development of disease-resistant banana varieties," said Hùng.

Under the national seed programme to 2025, with a vision to 2030, priority has been given to breeding high-yield, high-quality varieties resistant to Panama disease. Several varieties have shown strong resistance, including UNI 126 developed by U&I Agriculture Corporation and Furi 5 from the Fruit and Vegetable Research Institute.

Experts at the forum agreed that with effective disease control, sustainable production restructuring and stronger value chains, Việt Nam’s banana sector has an opportunity to become a billion-dollar export industry in the near future.

The forum was jointly organised by the Department of Crop Production and Plant Protection, in coordination with the Agriculture and Environment newspaper and the Fruit and Vegetable Research Institute under the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment. VNS