HÀ NỘI — Despite a sharp increase in the trade deficit in the first nine months of 2026, trade developments in the final months of the year, together with the target of raising exports by 15-16 per cent, provide grounds for optimism that the trade balance will continue to improve, Deputy Director of the Agency for Foreign Trade under the Ministry of Industry and Trade Trịnh Thị Thu Hiền said at a ministry press conference on October 7.

Explaining the rise in imports, Hiền said a notable factor was the increased import value of electronics, computers, components and equipment. Higher global raw material prices, particularly inputs for electronics and semiconductor production, have pushed up import values, with prices of some chips and solid-state drives (SSDs) rising by 300-500 per cent.

Businesses have also increased inventories to ensure production amid growing demand for technology products, particularly as the rapid development of artificial intelligence (AI) has driven demand for materials and components. Some firms have doubled their inventory coverage from around six to 12 weeks, while in one case inventory value rose from US$100 million to $700 million.

The import increase also reflects expanded production by electronics and semiconductor firms and businesses participating in Việt Nam-based export supply chains. Hiền cited Samsung’s $1.5-billion investment expansion in Thái Nguyên Province, Intel’s relocation of part of its supply chain from Costa Rica to Việt Nam, and the expansion and upgrading of BYD’s plant in Phú Thọ Province.

She noted that the import growth was not driven solely by domestic demand but was also linked to production, investment and expanded export capacity. This factor should be viewed in the broader context of trade developments, particularly as manufacturing and exports enter the year-end peak season.

To improve the trade balance, the Ministry of Industry and Trade is implementing measures focusing on mechanisms and policies, market development, and support for businesses. Maintaining export growth in the final months of the year is considered key to narrowing the deficit.

Total trade turnover reached $888.02 billion in the first nine months, up 30.4 per cent year-on-year, with exports rising 24.5 per cent and imports 36.7 per cent. The period recorded a trade deficit of $19.42 billion.

Hiền said the nine-month figure provides grounds to expect the trade deficit for the full year could fall below $10 billion, provided export growth is sustained in the fourth quarter.

According to the Ministry of Finance’s National Statistics Office, the import-export turnover reached $117.69 billion in September, up 7.3 per cent from the previous month and 42.4 per cent year-on-year. The country recorded a trade surplus of $1.27 billion in September, ending nine consecutive months of deficit.

In the longer term, the Agency for Foreign Trade will focus on strengthening Vietnamese enterprises, increasing localisation rates and raising the domestic value added of products. Deeper participation in supply chains will help retain more value in the domestic economy, providing a more sustainable foundation for export growth and an improved trade balance, added Hiền. — VNA/VNS