HÀ NỘI — Việt Nam will need to generate between US$227-231 billion in exports during the final five months of 2026 to meet its full-year growth target, putting pressure on exporters as trade barriers, production costs and competition intensify in major overseas markets.

Exports reached nearly $319.7 billion in the first seven months, up 21.7 per cent year-on-year, according to the Customs Department. 

To achieve annual export growth of 15-16 per cent, total shipments would need to reach about $546-551 billion, requiring monthly exports of roughly $45-46 billion for the remainder of the year.

The trade balance presents another challenge. Việt Nam recorded a trade deficit of about $20.3 billion during the seven-month period.

Nguyễn Anh Sơn, director general of the Agency of Foreign Trade under the Ministry of Industry and Trade, said the dual target of increasing export turnover while balancing trade had become increasingly difficult.

The pressure on the remaining months of the year would be extremely high, Sơn told vnbusiness.vn, as Việt Nam would need an average monthly trade surplus of $3 billion against the current deficit of more than $20 billion.

Imports, however, included substantial inputs for future manufacturing. Computers, electronics and components represented 40 per cent of imports in the first seven months.

Together with machinery, equipment, tools and spare parts, the two categories accounted for more than half of total imports and serve as production and capital inputs for future exports.

Pressure is also mounting across major export industries.

Cao Hữu Hiếu, general director of the Vietnam National Textile and Garment Group (Vinatex), said profit margins in both garment and yarn production were being seriously threatened by raw-material price volatility and new tariff policies.

A 12.5 per cent additional US tariff under Section 301 on Vietnamese textiles and garments, effective from July 24, has increased cost pressures. 

Exporters are concerned that customers could demand cost-sharing, push for lower prices or shift orders to competitors such as Bangladesh and Cambodia, which face a 10 per cent tariff.

In seafood, Nguyễn Hoài Nam, general secretary of the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP), said export growth of less than 5 per cent in July was insufficient to provide strong momentum towards the industry's target.

Vietnamese shrimp is facing direct competition from Ecuador and India, while Ecuador has begun expanding into processed shrimp, traditionally a strength of Vietnamese suppliers. VASEP's most optimistic scenario puts seafood exports at $12.5 billion if barriers are addressed in a timely manner.

Wood exporters are also confronting US trade-remedy measures. Despite exports exceeding $10 billion in seven months, the industry faces an 84.95 per cent US anti-dumping duty on Vietnamese hardwood plywood, creating a substantial cash-deposit burden for exporters since July, according to the Vietnam Timber and Forest Product Association.

With traditional markets becoming more challenging, trade officials are calling for greater diversification.

Võ Thị Ngọc Diệp, Việt Nam's trade counsellor in the Netherlands, said the country should be treated as a strategic gateway to the European Union, with trade promotion linked more closely to major exhibitions and stronger compliance with green standards.

In Russia, trade counsellor Dương Hoàng Minh identified payment arrangements as a key bottleneck, as major retailers require Vietnamese suppliers to accept deferred payments of 30-45 days. 

Meanwhile, Trương Xuân Trung, head of Việt Nam's Trade Office in the UAE, urged businesses to use tariff preferences under the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) and consider bonded warehouses or retail networks in UAE free-trade zones.

At a conference on August 13, Permanent Deputy Prime Minister Phạm Gia Túc said the Government and ministries would address emerging business difficulties immediately rather than waiting for periodic meetings.

He instructed the Ministry of Industry and Trade to accelerate negotiations on new free trade agreements, particularly with Mercosur in the third quarter, and simplify procedures for certificates of origin (C/O).

The Ministry of Finance was tasked with accelerating value-added tax refunds, while the State Bank of Vietnam was asked to facilitate exporters' access to credit and preferential interest rates. 

Authorities were also instructed to examine companies with large gaps between imports and exports, particularly in electronics, to assess the potential for imported inputs to be converted into export products. — BIZHUB/VNS