The Ministry of Finance has drafted a socio-economic development plan for 2026, setting the gross domestic product (GDP) growth target at 10 per cent -- a sharp increase compared to this year’s expected growth, despite the international forecasts of a slowdown.

In its recent report to the Government, the ministry said the Vietnamese economy is on track to basically fulfil the overall goals set for 2025, with all 15 key indicators expected to be achieved. GDP growth is projected to reach at least 8 per cent in 2025, with per capita income rising to US$5,000 and inflation staying at around 4 per cent, providing the launchpad for double-digit growth in 2026.

According to the first draft of the 2026 socio-economic development plan, GDP per capita is projected at $5,000, inflation at around 5 per cent, and poverty reduction of 1-1.5 per cent.

The ministry’s draft plan is in line with Prime Minister Phạm Minh Chính’s directive earlier this year, which set 2026 as the first year the economy would embark on the double-digit growth journey -- a step toward a new era of prosperity.

However, the double-digit growth target is far more ambitious than forecasts by international institutions, as the Vietnamese economy continues to face challenges from increasing global uncertainties.

Singapore–based United Overseas Bank (UOB) has maintained its forecast of 7 per cent for Việt Nam in 2026, though it raised its 2025 forecast from 6.9 per cent to 7.5 per cent.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently projected Việt Nam’s growth to slow to 6.5 per cent in 2025 and decelerate further in 2026, citing the full-year effect of the new US tariffs announced in July and the unwinding of most of the one-off 2025 government stimulus.

“The outlook is heavily dependent on the outcome of trade negotiations and is constrained by elevated global uncertainty over trade policies and economic environment,” the IFM wrote.

“A further escalation in global trade tensions or a tightening of global financial conditions could weaken further exports and investment. Domestically, financial stress could re-emerge from tighter financial conditions and high corporate indebtedness.”

On the upside, successfully implementing infrastructure projects and structural reforms could significantly boost medium-term growth. If global trade tensions subsided, the economic outlook would also improve, according to the IFM.

As the economy’s export‑led growth model faces increasing challenges from rapidly evolving and uncertain global trade policies, population ageing, tightening global financial conditions, and climate change, the IMF emphasised that policies should focus on maintaining economic resilience and financial stability, while advancing reforms to ensure robust, diversified, and stable medium‑term growth.

The World Bank, in its report in September, forecast Việt Nam's economy to grow 6.6 per cent in 2025, ease to 6.1 per cent in 2026, and then rebound to 6.5 per cent in 2027.

As an export-oriented economy, Việt Nam remains vulnerable to slower global growth and softening demand from major trading partners. Trade-policy uncertainty may also begin to weigh on business and consumer confidence, according to the World Bank.

To support growth and hedge against external risks, the World Bank recommended scaling up public investment, mitigating financial-sector vulnerabilities, and advancing structural reforms.

Determination

While forecasts are mixed on global uncertainties, the Vietnamese Government has shown strong determination to achieve double-digit growth.

To achieve the goals, the Ministry of Finance, in its draft 2026 socio-economic development plan, outlined 10 key policies. These include hastening institutional reforms, ensuring macroeconomic stability, shifting to a new growth model, accelerating investment in infrastructure, enhancing human resource quality, and advancing science, technology and innovation.

The ministry noted that economic hubs such as Hà Nội, HCM City, Đà Nẵng, Hải Phòng, Đồng Nai, and Lâm Đồng would need to post double-digit growth to generate momentum for the broader economy.

According to Nguyễn Đức Hiển, deputy head of the Central Economic Policy and Strategy Commission, Việt Nam can no longer rely on traditional growth drivers such as resource extraction and cheap labour. Instead it must foster new growth engines through innovation, science, and technology.

Double-digit expansion could be achievable, said Phạm Anh Tuấn, deputy director of Việt Nam Institute of Economics, noting that the priority should be on promoting private investment and attracting high-tech capital in line with digital and green transitions.

Đặng Hoàng Hải Anh, a senior economist at the World Bank, said that Việt Nam should pay close attention to mounting challenges beyond growth targets, including rapid population ageing, declining birth rates, climate change vulnerability, and environmental pollution.

Acceleration

The Vietnamese Government has signalled a strong determination to achieve a GDP growth rate of 8.3-8.5 per cent this year as a foundation for two-digit growth in the following years.

To achieve this goal, the Ministry of Finance estimated that Việt Nam would need to mobilise about US$111 billion in total investment in the second half of this year, around $3 billion more than under an 8 per cent growth scenario. Key drivers would include public investment disbursement, private investment, and credit expansion.

The Ministry of Industry and Trade has also outlined plans to achieve a GDP growth of 8.3-8.5 per cent this year, with key solutions including speeding up institutional reforms, promoting industrial development, boosting supporting industries and sustainability, as well as accelerating trade and consumption, particularly e-commerce.

Official statistics for the first nine months of 2025 will be released in early October, but economic data through August suggested that third-quarter GDP growth is likely to remain robust.

The Vietnamese economy expanded at 7.52 per cent in the first half of this year, the highest rate recorded during the 2011-25 period.  VNS