HCM CITY — Remittances to HCM City through credit institutions and economic organisations increased 1.4 per cent quarter-on-quarter to more than US$2 billion in the second quarter of 2026 but were 28 per cent lower than a year earlier, according to the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) Region 2 Branch.

Cumulative remittance inflows for the first half of the year reached just over $4 billion, down nearly 23 per cent from the same period in 2025.

Trần Thị Ngọc Liên, deputy director of the SBV's Region 2 Branch, said that in the second quarter, Asia remained the largest source of remittances, contributing more than $1 billion, or 49.3 per cent of the total, up 9.8 per cent from the previous quarter.

The Americas ranked second with $672.6 million, accounting for 33.1 per cent of the total, followed by Oceania with $195.7 million (9.6 per cent), Europe with $154.1 million (7.6 per cent), and Africa with $7.6 million (0.4 per cent).

Liên attributed the decline to a combination of global and domestic factors.

Globally, slower economic growth, the continued strength of the US dollar and tighter immigration policies in several host countries affected the employment, income and remittance capacity of overseas Vietnamese.

In the Americas, particularly the US, which accounts for a substantial share of remittances to HCM City, inflationary pressures, high living costs, changes in labour market conditions and tax policy adjustments affecting certain money transfer transactions also weighed on remittance flows.

Domestically, some investment channels have yet to become attractive enough to draw remittance capital. In addition, the zero per cent interest rate on foreign currency deposits has prompted some overseas Vietnamese to keep their savings abroad or shift funds into alternative investment assets, according to the SBV's Region 2 Branch.

The growing use of new payment channels has also dispersed remittance flows, contributing to a relative decline in remittances processed through the banking system.

Looking ahead, the SBV's Region 2 Branch forecasts that, provided the global economy avoids major disruptions and the recovery trend continues, total remittances to HCM City could reach between $8.6 billion and $8.9 billion in 2026.

Although remittance inflows are not expected to return to the levels seen in previous years, the central bank expects the quarterly recovery to become more evident in the second half of 2026, supported by gradually easing global interest rates, stable exchange rates and the ongoing efforts of banks to attract remittance inflows. — VNS