HÀ NỘI — Pressure from corporate bond maturities is expected to ease in the third quarter of 2026 compared with the previous quarter, although businesses continue to face significant funding challenges as new issuance remains insufficient to offset maturing and early redeemed bonds.

According to an analysis by FiinGroup, total principal and interest payments on corporate bonds due in the third quarter are estimated at approximately VNĐ75.1 trillion (nearly US$3 billion), down 8.1 per cent from the second quarter and 18.9 per cent from the same period last year. 

In July alone, payment obligations are projected at around VNĐ19.4 trillion, a sharp 44.3 per cent decline from June.

Despite the near-term improvement, payment obligations remain substantial for the remainder of the year. 

FiinGroup estimates that about VNĐ192.5 trillion in principal and interest payments will fall due during the second half of 2026, while the corporate bond market continues to contract because fresh issuance has yet to replace bonds reaching maturity or being repurchased early.

As of the end of June, the outstanding value of Việt Nam's corporate bond market was equivalent to roughly 10.1 per cent of GDP and 6.9 per cent of total outstanding bank credit, significantly lower than levels seen before 2022. 

The figures indicate that the corporate bond market has yet to regain its previous role as a major long-term funding channel for the economy.

Pressure is expected to be concentrated among non-bank issuers.

FiinGroup projects that non-financial enterprises will face approximately VNĐ98 trillion in bond maturities during the second half of the year, up 28.6 per cent from the first six months of 2026 and 20.2 per cent year-on-year. 

Within this group, real estate companies account for around VNĐ61.2 trillion, representing 62.5 per cent of total bond maturities, with repayment pressure expected to peak in December.

Interest payment obligations are also set to increase. Coupon payments due from non-bank issuers during the second half of the year are forecast to exceed VNĐ37.1 trillion, an increase of 22.7 per cent from the first half. Real estate developers are expected to account for approximately VNĐ21.7 trillion of those interest payments.

Data compiled by FiinPro-X as of July 12 shows that issuers had already paid around VNĐ119.3 trillion in bond principal and interest since the beginning of the year, equivalent to 38.6 per cent of the total payment obligations expected for 2026.

While repayment pressure is easing in the third quarter, fundraising conditions remain challenging.

According to the report, the corporate bond market has yet to generate enough new issuance to compensate for bonds maturing or being redeemed ahead of schedule, resulting in a continued decline in market size. This suggests that the bond market is still recovering its capacity to serve as a long-term capital raising channel for Vietnamese enterprises.

The funding challenge comes as companies continue to diversify financing sources while balancing debt repayment obligations with new investment needs. 

For sectors such as real estate, where bond maturities account for the majority of outstanding obligations, refinancing conditions and access to fresh capital will remain closely watched through the remainder of the year. — BIZHUB/VNS