Vũ Hoa

HÀ NỘI — Experts have called for Việt Nam to restructure its capital mobilisation system and strengthen the role of the capital market to meet an estimated investment demand of VNĐ38.5 quadrillion (US$1.5 trillion) during 2026–30, reducing pressure on bank lending and supporting sustainable long-term growth.

Speaking at the conference on restructuring capital channels held in Hà Nội on Wednesday, Phạm Văn Hoành, editor-in-chief of Tài chính - Đầu tư (Finance - Investment) newspaper, said a more balanced financial system is essential if Việt Nam is to sustain annual GDP growth of 10 per cent or more over the next five years.

The State budget would meet only about 20 per cent of the country's investment needs, or more than VNĐ7.5 quadrillion, meaning the remaining 80 per cent would have to come from the private sector, financial markets and international capital, Hoành said.

He noted that bank credit remains the economy's main funding source but is under growing pressure as deposit growth has failed to keep pace with lending, pushing up funding costs and increasing financing expenses for businesses.

"Restructuring capital channels is essential to improve the mobilisation and allocation of resources while ensuring better coordination between the money market and the capital market," he said.

Bùi Hoàng Hải, vice chairman of the State Securities Commission, said Việt Nam's stock market had become an increasingly important pillar of the financial system after three decades of development.

By the end of May 2026, stock market capitalisation had reached around VNĐ10.61 quadrillion, equivalent to 82.6 per cent of 2025 GDP, while the number of investor accounts exceeded 13 million, achieving the Government's 2030 target ahead of schedule.

During the first five months of this year, companies raised nearly VNĐ289.5 trillion through share offerings and initial public offerings, up 86.5 per cent from 2025 and 2.5 times the average annual level over the previous five years. The listed bond market also expanded to about VNĐ2.82 quadrillion, or 21.9 per cent of GDP.

Hải also highlighted FTSE Russell's decision to upgrade Việt Nam to Secondary Emerging Market status from September 2026, saying the move was expected to improve the country's ability to attract foreign investment.

However, he stressed that public finances alone could not meet the country's massive investment needs.

"With around 80 per cent of investment demand expected to come from private and international sources, the stock market must play a much greater role as a provider of medium- and long-term financing for the economy," he said.

Đặng Nguyệt Minh, research director at Dragon Capital, said maintaining GDP growth above 10 per cent annually would require investment equivalent to around 40 per cent of GDP, translating into total capital demand of roughly $1.5 trillion during 2026-30.

She said the private sector was expected to contribute about 53 per cent of total investment, while the State budget should account for around 32 per cent and foreign direct investment 15 per cent.

With outstanding bank credit already at around 145-146 per cent of GDP, among the highest levels in the region, there was limited room for further credit-led expansion, she said.

Dragon Capital estimates Việt Nam will face an annual funding gap of $120-150 billion that will need to be filled through equity markets, corporate and government bonds, and other long-term financing channels.

"We cannot build a 40-year economy using 12-month funding," Minh said, arguing that a gradually shift from a bank credit-driven model towards one led by capital markets is needed.

She added that bank lending still accounted for about 82.8 per cent of total financing in Việt Nam, while equity and bond markets represented only 4.1 per cent and 13.1 per cent, respectively, highlighting significant room for capital market development.

Minh also said the market needed a broader range of listed companies, particularly in technology and manufacturing, while expanding domestic institutional investors such as pension funds, mutual funds and insurance companies to provide stable long-term capital.

Bùi Thành Trung, deputy chief executive officer of Thiên Việt Securities (TVS), said the biggest obstacle facing private equity and venture capital was not a lack of funding but the absence of efficient exit mechanisms.

"The biggest constraint today is not the size of available capital but how investors can exit and recycle capital more quickly and sustainably," he said.

Although private equity and venture capital investment in Việt Nam almost doubled to $4.5 billion across 149 deals in 2025, investors have increasingly shifted towards later-stage companies with proven business efficiency rather than early-stage start-ups.

Trung said Việt Nam should develop a dedicated trading platform for innovative start-ups and strengthen the broader investment ecosystem to improve liquidity and facilitate exits through multiple channels.

"If capital can enter, circulate and exit efficiently, Việt Nam will have a much greater opportunity to nurture innovative start-ups and build technology companies capable of competing regionally and globally," he said.

Experts at the conference agreed that developing a deeper and more diversified capital market would be essential to meeting the country's ambitious growth targets while reducing its long-standing reliance on bank credit. — VNS